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CRITICAL RISK

🇾🇪 Yemen (Houthi / Ansar Allah) — Maritime Risk Profile

Houthi forces (Ansar Allah) controlling western Yemen have conducted the world's most active maritime attack campaign since October 2023, targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb with missiles, drones, and naval mines.

Background

The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, are an Iranian-backed armed movement that controls a large portion of Yemen including the capital Sanaa and the Red Sea port of Hodeidah. The movement emerged from the Zaidi Shia community in northern Yemen and fought a series of wars with the Yemeni government before seizing Sanaa in 2014–15. A Saudi-led military coalition has been fighting to restore the government since 2015. Iran supplies the Houthis with weapons, training, and intelligence through the 'Axis of Resistance' network.

Current Maritime Threats

Anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) with ranges covering the entire Red Sea

One-way attack drones (including Shahed variants) targeting commercial and naval vessels

Anti-ship cruise missiles including the Filjal/Noor (based on Chinese C-802)

Floating naval mines deployed in shipping lanes

Potential targeting of vessels in the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea

Seizure operations using fast-attack boats and helicopter-borne boarding teams

Key Actors

Ansar Allah (Houthi) — political and military leadership

Houthi naval forces — operates boats, mines, and launches missiles/drones

Iran Quds Force — weapons supply and technical assistance

Houthi air force — manages drone and ballistic missile operations

Key Events Timeline

2025-03-01

Attacks resume after ceasefire collapses

2025-01-15

Gaza ceasefire announced; Houthis declare conditional pause

2024-08-21

VLCC Sounion attacked; drifts for weeks, environmental risk

2024-03-06

True Confidence attacked; three crew killed — first fatalities

2024-02-18

MV Rubymar struck; sinks 12 days later — first vessel sunk

2024-01-11

US and UK begin strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen

2023-12-18

US establishes Operation Prosperity Guardian

2023-12-11

MSC, CMA CGM suspend Red Sea transits

2023-11-19

Galaxy Leader (car carrier) seized — first vessel captured

2023-10-19

Houthis fire first missiles toward Israel; declare maritime campaign

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