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Situation Reports
In-depth analysis of ongoing maritime security crises affecting Gulf chokepoints and global trade routes. Each report covers background, current status, and a chronological timeline of key events.
Red Sea & Bab-el-Mandeb Crisis — Houthi Attacks on Commercial Shipping
Attacks continue intermittently. US-UK coalition airstrikes (Operation Prosperity Guardian / Operation Poseidon Archer) have degraded but not eliminated Houthi capabilities. An estimated 80–90% of shipping that previously transited the Suez Canal now diverts via the Cape route. War-risk insurance premiums for Red Sea transits remain 5–10× pre-crisis levels. Ceasefire talks between the US and Houthis have been reported but attacks continue.
11 timeline events · Last update: 2025-03-01
Read Report →Strait of Hormuz — Iran–US Maritime Tensions and Tanker Incidents
Iranian nuclear negotiations with the US continue with no final agreement. IRGCN harassment of commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman remains a background risk. Iran has demonstrated willingness to seize tankers as retaliation for sanctions enforcement. Regional tensions escalated sharply in April 2024 following Iran's direct missile and drone attack on Israel. US carrier strike groups have deployed to the region during escalation periods.
10 timeline events · Last update: 2025-01-01
Read Report →IRGCN Tanker Seizures — Iran's Use of Shipping as Geopolitical Leverage
IRGCN boarding operations and vessel seizures continue as a tool of Iranian policy. US and allied naval forces have increased their presence in the region but have not prevented all seizures. Several vessels remain in Iranian custody. The threat of seizure is a persistent risk factor for commercial shipping operators transiting the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters, particularly for vessels with any link to Israel or Western interests.
9 timeline events · Last update: 2025-01-01
Read Report →Global Shipping Disruption — Red Sea Crisis Impact on Trade and Freight
Most major container lines (Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen) continue to avoid the Red Sea. Spot freight rates from Asia to Europe remain significantly elevated versus pre-crisis levels. Cape of Good Hope transits have increased voyage distances by 3,500–4,000 nautical miles per round trip. Suez Canal revenue has dropped by approximately 60% year-on-year. Insurance war-risk premiums for Red Sea transits remain 0.5–1.0% of hull value. A small number of carriers — primarily those with naval escort arrangements — continue to transit.
9 timeline events · Last update: 2025-03-01
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