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ONGOINGHIGH RISK

Strait of Hormuz β€” Iran–US Maritime Tensions and Tanker Incidents

Background

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil chokepoint, with approximately 20% of global crude oil and 25% of LNG transiting daily. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait in response to US sanctions and military pressure, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) has a documented pattern of harassing, boarding, and seizing commercial vessels β€” particularly tankers β€” as leverage in geopolitical disputes. The US Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain maintains a continuous presence to deter interference.

Current Status

Iranian nuclear negotiations with the US continue with no final agreement. IRGCN harassment of commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman remains a background risk. Iran has demonstrated willingness to seize tankers as retaliation for sanctions enforcement. Regional tensions escalated sharply in April 2024 following Iran's direct missile and drone attack on Israel. US carrier strike groups have deployed to the region during escalation periods.

Key Events Timeline

2025-01-01

Iran's nuclear enrichment at 60% U-235; US-Iran talks resume in Oman

2024-10-01

Iran launches second direct ballistic missile salvo on Israel

2024-04-14

US, UK, France, Jordan help intercept Iranian attack; Israel retaliates

2024-04-13

Iran fires 300+ ballistic missiles and drones at Israel; regional escalation risk peaks

2023-05-03

IRGCN seizes Panama-flagged Niovi tanker in Strait of Hormuz

2023-04-27

IRGCN seizes Marshall Islands-flagged Advantage Sweet tanker

2021-07-29

Asphalt Princess tanker seized off UAE; Mercer Street attacked by drone, two crew killed

2019-07-04

UK seizes Iranian tanker Grace 1 in Gibraltar; Iran retaliates by seizing Stena Impero

2019-06-13

Front Altair and Kokuka Courageous tankers attacked in Gulf of Oman

2019-05-12

Four tankers sabotaged by limpet mines off Fujairah β€” US attributes to Iran

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